|
|
| Author |
Message |
jhasper
Joined: 24 Dec 2005 Posts: 17
176 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:36 am Post subject: Fold call or raise? |
|
|
Limit HE. 10 players.
You have KdJh on the button. You call. You, BB, and one other in the pot.
Flop- AcTc6s
BB bets. player 2 raises.
Fold, call or raise?
Honest answers please.
I will give my reason for asking after I get enough responses. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
arcfinn
Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 21
355 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:36 am Post subject: |
|
|
Fold, although I assume you're going to give a reason for a call or raise.
Is this limit or NL? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
chris
Joined: 13 Jan 2006 Posts: 41
411 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:37 am Post subject: |
|
|
You have roughly a 10.7 to 1 shot at hitting your straight on the turn. In order to get the best possible implied odds for taking a shot at trying to hit it on the turn you would need to assume that if you hit your straight, your hand will hold up 100% of the time and both the turn and river will be capped with both players staying in to the end.
If the next two rounds are going to be capped i'd have to assume that the flop will be capped as well so i'll be paying 4sb to win 16bb + the additional bets on the the flop (5sb) and the pot before i call (6sb). That's 43 sb won for a price of 4sb, or 10.75 to 1. As you can see, even in the absolute best possible scenario, with the highest possible payoff where you make your hand and it is never beat by a flush or boat, you still barely have the implied odds to call and see the turn, and you sure as hell don't have the odds to call anything if you miss the turn.
Of course, you can't assume anything nearly as good as the scenario mentioned above. You're implied odds are in reality much lower then that. You have to fold this unless you don't really care about making money and just like to gamble. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
easyguy
Joined: 06 Jan 2006 Posts: 11
216 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:37 am Post subject: |
|
|
Easy fold.
Pot is (assuming BB just calls) 7.5 SB and it costs you 2SB. A reraise behind you by the BB makes it worse.
You have 3 clean outs to the gutshot, so 1 in 16 cards to make your hand 'safely' on the turn.
Catching a pair on the turn puts way too much on the board. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
quickie
Joined: 22 Jan 2006 Posts: 7
105 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:38 am Post subject: |
|
|
| fold. you only have the gutshot draw. The fl draws have much better chances, and any set, 2pr has the fh draw. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
pritz
Joined: 17 Jan 2006 Posts: 31
267 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:38 am Post subject: |
|
|
Fold, with no regrets, for all of the reason's mentioned above.
These sure are sexy hands aren't they?
god how I hate them. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
lork
Joined: 05 Jan 2006 Posts: 44
311 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:39 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Fold. My on-the-spot thinking would be that A) it's a three-outer since the Qc is tainted. B) Based onthe action, only a straight will be good, C) a straight may not be the nuts if the board pairs or three-suits, and D) The board could also end up giving another player the same straight for a split pot. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
heartbreaker
Joined: 22 Jan 2006 Posts: 5
79 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:39 am Post subject: |
|
|
| Throw my vote in the fold column as well. You've only got 3 real outs - let it go. And additionally, am I the only person that would not have called PF with this hand since only one other person had limped in? |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
ballen
Joined: 31 Dec 2005 Posts: 42
456 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
| I doubt anyone would say anything other than fold, even if there was no flush draw on board. It would be debatable with no flush draw and better pot odds. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
razor
Joined: 21 Dec 2005 Posts: 32
328 credits
|
Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2006 12:40 am Post subject: |
|
|
I, for one, would have seen the flop then bailed.
While KJo is subject to domination, the pF action here doesn't send out any danger signals.
Personally, I'll limp these from EP-LP. Sb I complete and usually check from the bb. In the sb & bb, I fold to any raise in front. An exception would be in the bb with a raise from MP to LP and being sure I'll have at least four callers.
Obviously post-flop skill is paramount to continue.
TP is nice but, I really like to have something other than TP to rely on.
Backdoor straights and flushes strengthen the hand. Even then, I need to plan a quick exit if things get hairy. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
H.Reeve
Joined: 26 Jul 2006 Posts: 25
605 credits
|
Posted: Wed Jul 26, 2006 1:57 pm Post subject: |
|
|
| Without a doubt fold, if it was only raised once by a small amount I would have been tempted to call, however the hand was re-raised which would lead me to believe that both players possibly have a decent hand. At the moment you don't have anything and you're going for the straight draw, the chances of you getting the straight are rather small, therefore definitely get out at this point. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|