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vincent



Joined: 29 Dec 2005
Posts: 5

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PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2005 8:37 pm    Post subject: Newcomb's Paradox : No puzzle, just a hard (?) decision Reply with quote

I've brought this up on RGP a few times. People clearly see the correct answer, and find it completely obvious. If only they would all AGREE on what they find completely obvious.

In a totally Poker Context L

The Legend, Phil Helmuth, bankrolled by the boys at Microsoft, has been perfecting his "Look into your soul" technique.

He stares deeply into his subject's eyes, getting a read on the kind of person you are.

When satisfied, he goes into the other room taking 3 chips with him. One is a black $10,000 chip, redeemable for cash.

One is a white $1 chip.

One is a specially monogrammed $1 chip. This chip, if claimed, will entitle the bearer to a full buy in , and full R&B, for every poker tourney on the WPT schedule as well as the entire WSOP.

He will leave the black chip and one of the white chips on a table, then leave the room. You may walk over to the table and choose one of two actions.

1) Pick up the white chip without looking at it, and leave.
2) Pick up the black chip then pick up the white chip without looking at it, and leave.

Note : the feel of both white chips from the sides, and the non-monogrammed face are identical. There is no way to visually tell them apart without turning them face up.

Phil, while looking into your soul, has judged the kind of person you are.

If he believes you will just take the white chip, he has left the monogrammed chip.

If he believes you will take both, he leaves the $1 chip.

if he believes you're a smartass and will flip a coin or something, he leaves the $1 chip.

You are the 14,159'th person tested. Phil's success rate is phenominal. His error rate is less than .5% , equally divided. A few people got $1 only, a few people got $10,000 plus the free poker ride.

Phil has peered, placed the chips on the table, and left.

You walk to the table and.....
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